Winning the toss

19 03 2009

WARNING: Please do not even try to read this unless you are cricket fan. If you are not it will only irritate you ūüėČ thx.

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Test Cricket: Australia vs. South Africa: 6 tosses to ZERO, nada, nought. Time for a change in the rules.

by Jarrod Hart

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Winning the toss in cricket can be a very significant advantage, and lead to unfairness. Let me explain…

Firstly, I am going to admit that I am an avid cricket fan. And being a nerd too, this makes me doubly susceptible to a love affair with sports statistics.

I probably learnt most of my maths skills working out how many runs Graeme Pollock required to improve his season’s average, or calculating the run rate¬†required¬†by Clive Rice’s Transvaal team to win the Benson & Hedges night series final at the Wanderers.

So what is my problem with the toss?

In many sports there are environmental factors that skew the game – the sun shining in your eye when you serve, the dew on the putting green, the wind behind Jonny Wilkinson, and so on.

A cricket pitch is no different. Being composed of sand and grass, it is not wholly predictable – it is also prone to evolve over time.

It can therefore be a big advantage to bat first, or perhaps to bat second. The skilled captain can often tell what the pitch will do from looking at it. To make things fair, a coin toss is used to see who gets to choose who goes first. Fine. Over the course of years, all teams will win some and lose some.¬†However, with test matches taking five days each, the teams only play each other once every few years, so the ‘fairness’ may take a generation to arrive.¬†

The stats are clear. Winning the toss helps. Get the latest stats from wikipedia; at the time of writing 34.7% of toss winners had won the match. 30.8% of toss losers had won. The remainder draw/tie.

Some people will still say, oh, that’s not too big an effect, less than, say, the home advantage in football. Yes the numbers aren’t too dramatic, but what no-one seems to be pointing out is that that 3.9% difference is actually coming from a somewhat bigger difference in a smaller subset of the matches.

For example, many cricket tests are one-sided. That is to say, the favourite wins. In cricket upsets are fairly rare (rarer than in football for example). Draws yes, but complete reversals are not that common. This means that there have been lots of outclassed teams winning the toss (statistically, even the most outclassed team win the toss half the time). They have of course, mostly lost.

Secondly, there have been matches where the pitch really was constant. That is to say the toss didn’t help.

So we are left only with the matches between evenly matched teams on pitches that change. The 3.9% positive toss effect must be a stronger effect coming from this subset of the results.

I also have anecdotal evidence (all scientists, wince now). I have often watched a match, where the first team has scored 600 of a flat pitch, and then seen the second team face a ball that suddenly stays low or cuts around. We have recently seen some almighty thrashings, some by an innings plus. These by teams that were, just before the match, considered fairly equal.

Now we come to the present time. The #1 and #2 teams in the world have been locked in battle for several months. I am of course referring to the ongoing test series between South Africa and Australia. And Australia have just won their sixth toss in a row. They have won the last three matches, on ‘evolving’ pitches, and of course I am bitter, of course I am looking for excuses. But I am rational enough to see unfairness when it strikes.

I was not going to write about it. I knew it would come over as whining. Until a friend pointed out a simple solution: they could have one toss at the start of the series and then alternate the choices for the remaining tests, thereby preventing one team heaping the unfairness too high.

Today’s sixth win in a row for Australia was too much. We need a change in the rules. The South Africans have lost their #1 ranking to the toss, and it stinks.

The last 6 tests:

Test no. 1899 Toss won by Australia, match by SA (In Australia)

Test no. 1902  Toss won by Australia, match by SA (In Australia)

Test no. 1904  Toss won by Australia, match by Australia  (In Australia)

Test no. 1910 Toss won by Australia,  match by Australia (In SA)

Test no. 1913  Toss won by Australia,  match by Australia (In SA)

Test no. 1916 Yes, Toss won by Australia,  match ongoing (In SA)

Foot-note: Being a cricket stats nerd, it was of course sad news to hear that Bill Frindall, a peerless cricket analyst had died. He acted as the eye of a the nerd-storm that has been raging for years, about which most of the world was blissfully unaware. His death has left us all without bearing, little squalls in the night. ¬†CricInfo is not not quite the same. Yes, it’s rammed full of passionate staff, many of whom are nerds and scholars of the game, but it seems to lack the Frindall touch. I ask you this: who will care about this problem with the toss in this new world order? Bill would have.

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The Economics of Advertising Warfare

19 03 2009

Picture the scene. Acme Corp’s toothpaste business AcmeDent is a profitable enterprise; and so is that of their biggest rival Ace.

One day, however, they hire a new marketing and sales manager, let’s call him Bob. He is ambitious and full of ideas – ready to shatter preconceptions, break the mold, think outside of the box, etc, etc.

After a few days in the office he realises that the market is saturated. People are just not going to start brushing at lunchtime. The only thing for it is to increase market share. He calls a team meeting.

“We either have to increase sales or increase our margins. We have already cut ourselves to the bone cost-wise, and increasing price will lose market share. If we cut prices, we lose market share – so it looks like stale-mate.” But Bob, being new, felt this was old fashioned reasoning. Surely we could do something to get market share? “Any ideas?”, he asks.

The room is quiet. No one wants to say anything risky in front of the new boss. Looking around at his team, his eyes settle on Sheila, the head of brand management. “What are you doing to get market share?”

Now Sheila wanted Bob’s job. She’s not is a good mood, but knows to be cautious. “Well Bob, as you will know from the report I prepared for you, our advertising budget is tight; your predecessor seemed to think we just needed to match Ace’s spend.”

“What? Why?!” Bob sits up. He can smell an opportunity.

“Don’t ask me, I asked for more. He was very conservative.” There’s a murmur around the table. They all know Sheila is being polite. Before being headhunted, Bob’s predecessor had a reputation for being tighter than duck’s arse.

A few weeks later, the new ad campaign cranks into life. Bob is surprised by how much it cost, but he knows 10% more market share will make it more than worth while. He starts to study his sales figures with care. Will it work?

The end of the quarter looms. What will the results show? Bob reads the business news – Ace’s chairman has made some comments. They are very critical and accuse Acme of “destroying the market”.

“Ha!” Bob exclaims out loud. Excellent, they are hurting.

The results roll in. They are good. 12% additional market share, mostly taken from Ace. No wonder they’re moaning.

That night, he sees the new TV ad from Ace. He has to admit it’s good.

“Why didn’t we think of that?” he booms to Sheila the next morning. “It’s a great idea.”

Sheila is unruffled. “We did think of it; we just thought it would be too expensive.”

“Hell!”, Bob is on a roll with the benefit of hindsight, “we’ve seen that advertising can gain us market share – of course it’s worth it. What you can do if I double your budget?”

“Well…”

Ace’s campaign works and Acme loses most of their new-found market share. The next month brings Acme’s bigger and better campaign – tying together TV, print, competitions, star endorsements, the whole shebang. Again is works like a charm. Market share is back up.

Freshly sun-tanned from two weeks on the Keys, Bob is feeling pretty pleased with himself at the AGM. The CEO will surely make a point of congratulating him on a job well done. He is getting on too, and will surely be eyeing up replacements.

The meeting starts well and soon enough they came to the the financial performance of AcmeDent toothpaste.

“Bob,” the CEO starts, “what the hell is going on here?”

Bob is taken aback by the look of displeasure on the CEO’s face. Oh, well he has a reputation for being grumpy, maybe this is him having a joke. “Well, you see, we have increased market share by 10% this year, our revenues are at an all time high…”. He searched the CEO’s still stony face.

“But what about profits? What are they?”

“Well, you see, this year we made significant investments, so it doesn’t look¬†great, but rest assured, next year…”

“Investments?”

“Yes, we invested in major advertising campaigns…”

The CEO is shaking his head slowly.

Bob is suddenly feeling a nervous. “Well, we had to spend money to get the market share, but now we’ve got it, we will see a profit next year.” That should calm him down.

“But what about Ace’s latest trick? While you were away, they’ve started a new fad amongst teenagers for luminous teeth or something.”

“Well sir, it is a bit of an arms race…”

“A race to where exactly?”, the CEO looks very serious now.

“Well…”

“Bob, can’t you see, they have to match our advertising spend to protect their business. All you’ve done is pissed both company’s profits down the plughole.”

The CEO leans over to his assistant,¬†“How much to get the other guy back?” he whispers.